Hard to start after Doc’s talk.
Ph.D. on Framfab. And on new economy and dot com boom and bust.
What happened back then? To see if there are any similarities…
How do we predict twists of history?
How do we make sense in heated times?
Started 5, at top it was 2000.
He made a ethnographic study of their office and looked at the software called Bricks.
Envisioning / claiming / creating the future — the future factory
CEO is good visionary
Communicate vision through spatial metaphors
Ex. virtual land grab, idea of pioneers and movers
Other: curve surfing — s-curve often used to graph innovation.
Web 2.0: how can you tell where you are on the curve? Mentally you can surf the curve.
It’s like traveling on a train track. Technological determinism. It’s not that easy, society is much more complex, tech isn’t the only driving force. It has to do with what we use it for.
What are visions?
Conjuring, making a future tangible.
One way is to extrapolate trends through curve surfing. This is quite simplistic.
E.g. thinking about bridge between Denmark and Sweden in 1930ies.
Other ex.: thinking on computers in 1980ies — people will become robots.
Vaporware: locking a consumer’s mind. E.g. MacBook vs. PowerBook.
Speed mania, when speed is seen as inherently positive
First mover advantage, escape velocity
The supremacy of speed was idea behind Framfab
Flow / reflexivity
Go with the flow… but where are we going? (Good one!)
People during dotcom boom were reflexive, but still they didn’t see it coming?
Back to the two questions…
How to find twists of history?
Book on 404 — lack of memory on internet. SS19 missiles in USSR: after cold war they’re still made but now to launch satellites. Nice example of reappropriation of existing tech.
Making sense in heated times?
When do collectives become intelligent and when do they go stupid?
Recommendations: keep ties loose, have a diverse collective
Q Do you see a bubble 2.0? How does it compare to the first one? A It’s much harder to get that amount of money. Financial market is different now. Focus is on product itself. Older companies aren’t easily cheated by web people.
Q Does he see any rhetoric trends? A Idea of tech determinism is still there. In a way tech is the start, but it doesn’t happen automatically.
Q It seems that bubbles are necessary for evolution. Revolution has already happened. We’re at the forefront. Which is nice. A Back then the rhetoric had bad timing.